Four on the Floor
All 14 NLL teams have 4 games under their belt, meaning we’re past the realm of small sample sizes; time to find out who’s the best and worst at all facets of the game.
Photo Credit: Philadelphia Wings
Finally. The NLL 2025-26 regular season has truly begun.
We’ve all been pulling predictions out of our asses since November, saying this team is truly championship-caliber or should punt on the season. But those prognostications are based upon paper and wishful thinking, piss-poor substitutes for actual factual data from games played. One or two games is a flash in the pan, but four, baby, four games show trends.
Longtime readers will know that I consider four games enough of a sample size to be able to tell what an NLL team is or isn’t. Over the last two seasons, I typically do a post once all the teams have played at least four games, and since everyone reached this milestone last weekend, it’s time to see who’s kicking ass or getting theirs handed to them.
The format hasn’t changed. I’ll look at all the data I’ve collected, ranking teams based on set efficiency and listing out goals for/against. There isn’t a team with seven games under their belt like last season (Rochester), but it’s still not fair to rank them by their goal totals. I like efficiency better and will put more emphasis upon that stat.
Below will be lists and lists with random snippets of commentary from me. Under “Best”? Then those five teams are doing well at that shift type. Under “Worst”? Stuff needs to change like yesterday. Questions about a team’s inclusion/exclusion from these lists can be directed to me via the DM of whatever social media platform you found this on (except Twitter, where I essentially pull the pin, chuck it, and don’t come back until the next post grenade). As long as you’re not antagonistic, I don’t mind explaining.
Should your team plan the parade or prep the punt for the postseason? Let’s look at the numbers.
Photo Credit: Rochester Knighthawks
Best 5-on-5 Offenses by TrueESE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester Knighthawks | 41 | 15.2% | 72.9% | 15.0% | 14.7% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 29 | 17.0% | 75.4% | 14.2% | 21.6% |
| Toronto Rock | 29 | 15.2% | 69.1% | 13.6% | 20.2% |
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 39 | 16.0% | 71.3% | 13.4% | 22.9% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 34 | 15.0% | 71.2% | 12.9% | 20.9% |
I should have led off with this: NLL defenses this season are astonishingly good. Offenses are starting to pick things back up, but that uptick is recent. Last season had four teams above 15% in TrueESE%. This season, only the loaded wagon that is the Knighthawks is kissing 15.0%.
Admit it; you’re surprised to see Philly here. You shouldn’t be. Their offense wasn’t going to be the problem, it just had question marks about whether Brennan O’Neill was ready to take that step forward or how the tertiary scoring would deliver as Joe Resetarits continued to cement himself as the best American-born player in league history. We’ll get to what the problem is for the Wings shortly.
Worst 5-on-5 Offenses by TrueESE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Warriors | 1 | 8.5% | 69.1% | 7.0% | 25.0% |
| Georgia Swarm | 1 | 8.2% | 61.4% | 7.4% | 21.3% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 2 | 10.1% | 67.7% | 7.9% | 29.6% |
| Oshawa FireWolves | 3 | 10.2% | 68.2% | 8.6% | 24.3% |
| Halifax Thunderbirds | 2 | 12.4% | 61.8% | 9.1% | 33.8% |
Georgia being bad makes sense; Lyle Thompson desperately needs someone to help him out in this double coverage. But the Vancouver Warriors and Halifax Thunderbirds being this terrible? I can’t come up with good reasons for it. Believe me, I’ve tried. There are stars and studs out the front door for both these teams. They should not be performing this poorly, even considering this is the year of the goalie.
Best 5-on-5 Defenses by TrueESE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Swarm | 14 | 6.8% | 67.8% | 5.6% | 27.0% |
| Halifax Thunderbirds | 18 | 8.3% | 71.9% | 6.7% | 26.7% |
| Oshawa FireWolves | 21 | 8.3% | 70.2% | 6.9% | 28.4% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 21 | 9.4% | 66.1% | 8.5% | 20.3% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 22 | 12.4% | 74.0% | 10.1% | 23.9% |
Guess what else all five of these teams have in common? I can’t script this shit. Demonstrably dominant on one end of the floor and water-pistol ineffective on the other end.
Worst 5-on-5 Defenses by TrueESE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Seals | 33 | 20.2% | 74.2% | 18.1% | 19.2% |
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 46 | 15.9% | 66.4% | 14.5% | 19.9% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 34 | 14.2% | 66.5% | 13.7% | 15.7% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 29 | 14.3% | 76.4% | 13.0% | 18.8% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 33 | 14.7% | 68.0% | 12.5% | 22.4% |
This is why I wasn’t high on the Seals heading into this season. Their defense lost too much talent and depth, and the signs that Chris Origlieri was regressing have been there for a while now. Them having the worst settled defense is still a bit surprising, didn’t expect them to perform this poorly, but it’s hard to argue with what we’re seeing in purple and gold and black with waves and the trident’s a different color now and there’s some white — please go back to the old uniforms.
Vegas’s defense this season is better than the last few seasons, but their goaltending is still holding them back. And this is where you expected Philadelphia to show up, rocking a bad defense once again.
Photo Credit: Las Vegas Desert Dogs
Best Power Play Units by TruePPE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 8 | 36.4% | 72.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 13 | 30.2% | 79.1% | 31.0% | 14.3% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 8 | 28.6% | 78.6% | 26.7% | 16.7% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 11 | 26.8% | 65.9% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 9 | 21.4% | 78.6% | 22.5% | 12.5% |
The Desert Dogs don’t get a ton of penalties in their favor, but they make the most of them when they do. The Warriors being better with the man-advantage doesn’t do enough to assuage worries about their settled offense, especially considering a quarter of both shift types result in no shot on goal being made. Vancouver’s got problems out the front door, man, I don’t really know how else to put it.
Worst Power Play Units by TruePPE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Rock | 1 | 3.7% | 63.0% | 4.0% | 12.0% |
| Oshawa FireWolves | 10 | 10.0% | 63.0% | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Georgia Swarm | 8 | 14.3% | 66.1% | 13.8% | 19.0% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 10 | 13.7% | 71.2% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 11 | 16.7% | 65.2% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
I’ll admit, I’ve been a bit preoccupied with the weapon woes of the Swarm, Thunderbirds, FireWolves, and Warriors. The Rock having just one power play goal this season made my jaw drop when I saw it. Challen Rogers for the Rock’s third goal of the season, zeroes across the board since. Toronto’s only had 9 traditional power play opportunities through their four games, but one goal is Oshawa-at-the-beginning-of-this-season atrocious.
Best Penalty Kill Units by TruePKE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Swarm | 4 | 6.7% | 68.3% | 7.0% | 17.5% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 5 | 10.4% | 58.3% | 10.9% | 15.2% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 6 | 10.9% | 54.5% | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Saskatchewan Rush | 8 | 13.1% | 70.5% | 13.8% | 17.2% |
| San Diego Seals | 9 | 18.4% | 69.4% | 18.8% | 14.6% |
This Swarm defense is so damn fun to watch. They communicate, are constantly moving, stay on hands, and are collectively a giant pain in the ass of forwards everywhere. Rookie Michael Grace is anchoring the PK — that’s insane. But the key to the whole system is Brett Dobson’s elevated play. When there are defensive breakdowns, he’s cleaning up high danger chance after high danger chance. Go back and rewatch the Mammoth versus Swarm game from last weekend. Colorado poured the pressure on, with a focus on transition, and had plenty of power play opportunities. Dobson denied them with abandon.
Worst Penalty Kill Units by TruePKE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Black Bears | 12 | 28.6% | 66.7% | 31.6% | 7.9% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 12 | 27.9% | 74.4% | 30.8% | 7.7% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 13 | 22.8% | 82.5% | 24.1% | 13.0% |
| Oshawa FireWolves | 15 | 21.1% | 69.0% | 22.1% | 16.2% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 10 | 19.2% | 73.1% | 21.7% | 6.5% |
Nobody expected Zach Higgins to have as bad of a season as he’s having. He’s been chased in every Ottawa game this season except for one and has looked vulnerable across all shift types. A team’s best penalty killer has to be its goalie, and Higgins has been anything but that for the Black Bears.
Photo Credit: Ottawa Black Bears
Best Transition Offense by TrueFBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Black Bears | 15 | 28.3% | 90.6% | 23.8% | 19.0% |
| Georgia Swarm | 11 | 26.8% | 70.7% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 13 | 23.2% | 75.0% | 21.3% | 9.8% |
| Saskatchewan Rush | 16 | 22.5% | 76.1% | 20.0% | 13.8% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 7 | 20.6% | 82.4% | 19.4% | 11.1% |
Jeff Teat plus a short bench, it’s practically automatic. He’s not the only Black Bears lefty that likes the short bench, though. Still waiting for Jake Stevens to have an “I have arrived” type of transition game.
Worst Transition Offense by TrueFBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Wings | 5 | 11.1% | 86.5% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 7 | 14.9% | 76.6% | 11.9% | 22.0% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 8 | 13.6% | 81.4% | 12.1% | 13.6% |
| Oshawa FireWolves | 10 | 15.9% | 87.3% | 13.7% | 15.1% |
| Toronto Rock | 9 | 16.1% | 80.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
For as athletic and talented as their defensive unit is, I’m really surprised the FireWolves don’t pot the pill on the run more. I do think part of it has been trying to get the settled offense in a groove and shoot themselves out of their scoring slump they experienced early this season. The defense has done plenty; offense needs to pick up the slack.
Best Transition Defense by TrueFBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatchewan Rush | 5 | 10.9% | 71.7% | 8.6% | 20.7% |
| Toronto Rock | 4 | 12.1% | 75.8% | 10.5% | 15.8% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 6 | 15.0% | 82.5% | 10.9% | 27.3% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 5 | 14.7% | 85.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 8 | 16.7% | 85.4% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
Frank Scigliano is not defending his Goaltender of the Year crown adeptly this season, but he’s practically unsolvable on breakaways. Defenders in front of him, that’s a problem for him, but 1-on-1 or 2-on-1? His buttered bread.
Worst Transition Defense by TrueFBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Seals | 10 | 27.0% | 86.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 10 | 28.6% | 71.4% | 25.0% | 15.0% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 14 | 29.2% | 85.4% | 24.6% | 15.8% |
| Ottawa Black Bears | 14 | 25.0% | 73.2% | 21.2% | 18.2% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 11 | 22.0% | 80.0% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
It’s the goalies, man, simple as that.
“Where’s Halifax? Didn’t you write a whole thing about their reverse transition numbers being the worst in the league?” Yeah, by volume of shifts. I also wrote that Warren Hill has been consistently underappreciated considering how often he’s facing an opponent’s fast break and penalty kill. It’s the same recipe this season.
Photo Credit: Kyle Hess/Georgia Swarm
Only goalies that have played a minimum of 120:00 min. were considered for these, otherwise, I’d have to put both Seals goalies in one of these rankings. Yes, I know I put both Thunderbirds goalies in worst last season; they both had plenty of minutes played and were underwhelming.
GSAA, as a quick reminder, means Goals Saved Above Average. The quick math behind it is you add up everyone’s saves and shots against to get the league-average save percentage. Then you throw that number into a boring formula, and based off the number of saves a goalie has made, it tells us how many more or less shots a goalie did or did not stop. Positive numbers are good; negative numbers are bad.
Best Starting Netminders by GSAA
| Goalie | Min. | GA | SV | GAA | Sv% | GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dobson, Brett | 294:56 | 33 | 225 | 6.71 | .872 | 20.70 | Hill, Warren | 322:47 | 49 | 251 | 9.11 | .837 | 13.45 | Jamieson, Doug | 344:31 | 50 | 232 | 8.71 | .823 | 8.70 | Del Bianco, Christian | 242:57 | 35 | 167 | 8.64 | .827 | 7.05 | Ward, Dillon | 285:00 | 43 | 192 | 9.05 | .817 | 5.92 |
Dobson is making me eat so much crow, and I am absolutely here for it, three meals a day, seven days a week. He’s been sensational. A 20.70 GSAA in only 5 games? That’s good enough to win Goaltender of the Year and is a number you typically see after 18 games played, not 5. What’s crazier is Dobson’s playing better as the season’s gone along and is alternating save percentages right at the threshold of 90% the last four games, .911 to .867 to .938 to .895.
We seriously need to start tapping the drum for him to potentially win not just GotY but MVP, as well.
Worst Starting Netminders by GSAA
| Goalie | Min. | GA | SV | GAA | Sv% | GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higgins, Zach | 354:14 | 70 | 209 | 11.86 | .749 | -11.92 | Kells, Landon | 232:24 | 52 | 154 | 13.43 | .748 | -9.12 | Origlieri, Chris | 132:59 | 33 | 91 | 14.89 | .734 | -7.19 | Vinc, Matt | 299:50 | 51 | 173 | 10.21 | .772 | -4.37 | Walsh, Aden | 290:40 | 58 | 200 | 10.21 | .775 | -4.30 |
I’ve already waxed on about Higgins and Origlieri. Matt Vinc is letting Father Time think he finally has the greatest NLL goalie in league history within his grasp before he completely shuts the door on everyone in the postseason, per usual. Aden Walsh went from the best defense in the league to a really young Calgary defensive core.
Vegas still needs a goalie, but we knew that heading into the season. Philly has two able goalies. Vegas has some draft picks they just got from Colorado. Hint. Hint.