Goodbye, SSS!; Drowning Dobson
We finally leave the realm of small sample sizes, take a look at Dobson’s early exit last Saturday, and wrap everything up with another useless power rankings
Photo Credit: Jaclyn McKee/Vancouver Warriors
It’s the most! wonderful time! of the year! Every National Lacrosse League squad has played a minimum of four games, meaning we’ve finally left the land of small sample sizes (SSS) after seven long weeks and 37 games.
Baseball was my bag growing up, and the lesson to ignore the noise of April ingrained itself into me early. 27-30 games in a baseball season is 16.7-18.5% of an entire season. Early performances aren’t necessarily indicative of what’s to come for teams; they can be, but you shouldn’t believe that small sample means that will be the case for the team for the rest of the season.
This is true for the NLL, as well. As a recent example, the Knighthawks in 2022-23 were 6-0 before tripping over themselves to a 4-8 record in the last two-thirds of their season. Yeah, they made the playoffs, but they were unceremoniously bounced in the first round. Early season performance did not dictate who they were. How they looked at the end of the season was what they were when it really mattered.
We’ve been in a noisy period in the young 2023-24 NLL season. Yes, the FireWolves look more and more for real as time goes on, but what about the Rock, who only had three games under their belt when the FireWolves had five? Calgary was a one-win team, but so were six other squads with one more game in hand.
Four games in an 18-game season is 22.2% of a team’s season, meaning what we’re seeing is a more accurate version of what the team is and potentially will be. So, we should look at who’s excelling/disappointing at certain facets of the game to celebrate our vacating of the Land of SSS.
I’ll also muse over the interesting start and exit for Brett Dobson in last Saturday’s loss to the FireWolves. Maybe there will be a serious power rankings for once. Probably not.
Photo Credit: Asher Greene/Georgia Swarm
Goodbye, SSS!
And good riddance.
This section’s going to be a lot of lists and not a lot of commentary about how teams are doing. If they’re in the best category, they’re probably pretty good. If they’re in the worst category, improvement’s needed; not really a lot to say there. If you’re really curious about what a team’s inclusion/exclusion from these lists means, I dunno, hit me up on Twitter. I’ll explain it there.
Let’s kick things off with the most and least efficient even strength offenses. Unless noted otherwise, all numbers below are based off True stats (click here for an explainer).
Best 5-on-5 Offenses by ESE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany FireWolves | 52 | 17.6% | 68.2% | 15.2% | 20.8% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 32 | 17.9% | 69.3% | 15.2% | 27.5% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 38 | 14.2% | 66.0% | 13.5% | 19.9% |
| San Diego Seals | 29 | 15.1% | 70.5% | 13.5% | 18.1% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 33 | 14.2% | 66.5% | 12.8% | 19.6% |
Yeah, I’m also shocked the Warriors are top five by settled offensive efficiency. That’s a puzzle for another day.
How about settled defenses?
Best 5-on-5 Defenses by ESE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Rock | 14 | 8.1% | 64.7% | 6.7% | 28.7% |
| Panther City LC | 24 | 10.3% | 67.5% | 8.7% | 22.8% |
| New York Riptide | 29 | 12.1% | 67.8% | 10.4% | 23.7% |
| Halifax Thunderbirds | 25 | 13.7% | 72.5% | 10.6% | 27.2% |
| Albany FireWolves | 29 | 11.4% | 72.9% | 10.7% | 16.5% |
Who’s the worst on settled offense and defense?
Worst 5-on-5 Offenses by ESE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Riptide | 22 | 8.7% | 68.5% | 7.6% | 23.2% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 20 | 9.8% | 68.6% | 8.2% | 24.6% |
| Panther City LC | 26 | 10.6% | 69.1% | 9.8% | 21.6% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 26 | 11.1% | 71.8% | 9.9% | 20.5% |
| Saskatchewan Rush | 18 | 11.3% | 68.1% | 10.2% | 22.6% |
I cannot get over the fact a Jeff Teat settled offense is the worst in the NLL. Same for an offense boasting Mitch Jones, Joe Restarits, and Ben McIntosh.
Worst 5-on-5 Defenses by ESE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 40 | 16.7% | 69.0% | 15.6% | 19.9% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 43 | 17.5% | 72.8% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 39 | 15.2% | 69.5% | 14.6% | 18.7% |
| Saskatchewan Rush | 32 | 15.2% | 65.9% | 13.9% | 22.5% |
| Georgia Swarm | 42 | 13.9% | 68.3% | 12.4% | 20.4% |
My cautious optimism regarding Riley Hutchcraft continues to age like fine milk in the Sahara sun. Knighthawks defense really misses Dan Coates.
Photo Credit: Brandon Hill/New York Riptide
Time for special teams. Who’s dealing the most damage with the man-advantage, and who’s struggling to find the back of the net?
Best Power Play Units by PPE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Riptide | 13 | 30.2% | 79.1% | 31.0% | 7.1% |
| Panther City LC | 13 | 27.7% | 85.1% | 28.3% | 10.9% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 11 | 28.9% | 71.1% | 27.5% | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 12 | 21.4% | 66.1% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 12 | 20.7% | 77.6% | 22.2% | 5.6% |
Worst Power Play Units by PPE%
| Team | GF | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany FireWolves | 6 | 7.3% | 74.4% | 7.1% | 12.9% |
| Colorado Mammoth | 5 | 10.9% | 71.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 5 | 10.6% | 66.0% | 11.9% | 9.5% |
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 8 | 14.0% | 75.4% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Georgia Swarm | 8 | 13.6% | 69.5% | 14.8% | 11.1% |
I wasn’t making it up when I said the FireWolves have been atrocious on the power play. It’s a mystery to everyone, even the FireWolves’ bench boss.
Best Penalty Kill Units by PKE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Mammoth | 5 | 8.1% | 59.7% | 8.3% | 11.7% |
| Calgary Roughnecks | 4 | 11.4% | 80.0% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Swarm | 9 | 13.8% | 80.0% | 13.4% | 11.5% |
| Saskatchewan Rush | 8 | 15.1% | 69.8% | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 11 | 16.7% | 62.1% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
Worst Penalty Kill Units by PKE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany FireWolves | 12 | 27.9% | 76.7% | 27.9% | 9.3% |
| New York Riptide | 12 | 26.1% | 80.4% | 26.7% | 13.3% |
| Toronto Rock | 8 | 26.7% | 90.0% | 26.7% | 10.0% |
| San Diego Seals | 12 | 24.0% | 72.0% | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Panther City LC | 9 | 22.0% | 80.5% | 22.5% | 5.0% |
Photo Credit: Saskatchewan Rush
Getting from D to O as quickly as possible and making your opponent pay for letting you have a transition advantage is key in the NLL. Who runs best?
Best Transition Offense by FBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatchewan Rush | 17 | 30.9% | 76.4% | 28.8% | 13.6% |
| Georgia Swarm | 17 | 33.3% | 86.3% | 27.9% | 19.7% |
| Halifax Thunderbirds | 16 | 26.7% | 85.0% | 23.5% | 17.6% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 15 | 29.4% | 82.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Albany FireWolves | 12 | 25.5% | 74.5% | 22.2% | 18.5% |
If you told me a year ago that the Wings were a top 5 transition offense, I’d have died of asphyxiation from laughing so hard. Credit where it’s due, Wings GM and Head Coach Paul Day completely reversed that aspect of his squad’s game, going from a terrible transition team to a great one.
Worst Transition Offense by FBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Seals | 5 | 15.6% | 84.4% | 12.5% | 20.0% |
| Panther City LC | 9 | 15.0% | 70.0% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 9 | 18.4% | 77.6% | 16.1% | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bandits | 12 | 21.1% | 75.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Toronto Rock | 12 | 21.1% | 71.9% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
PCLC and the Rock being here hurts my brain. They destroyed opponents in transition last year. Just goes to show how quickly teams adapt year to year.
Best Transition Defense by FBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Swarm | 6 | 14.0% | 67.4% | 11.1% | 20.4% |
| Las Vegas Desert Dogs | 7 | 13.5% | 75.0% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Vancouver Warriors | 9 | 19.6% | 73.9% | 15.0% | 23.3% |
| Toronto Rock | 10 | 16.9% | 78.0% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| San Diego Seals | 8 | 17.8% | 75.6% | 16.0% | 10.0% |
Brett Dobson and Chris Origlieri — good goalies.
Worst Transition Defense by FBE%
| Team | GA | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Mammoth | 13 | 33.3% | 89.7% | 30.2% | 11.6% |
| Rochester Knighthawks | 18 | 31.6% | 84.2% | 26.1% | 21.7% |
| Panther City LC | 13 | 27.7% | 72.3% | 25.5% | 9.8% |
| Philadelphia Wings | 15 | 30.0% | 82.0% | 25.4% | 16.9% |
| Halifax Thunderbirds | 17 | 29.8% | 78.9% | 24.6% | 23.2% |
Photo Credit: James Bennett/Halifax Thunderbirds
Time to wrap this up with a look at goalies and my favorite stat to explain their performance — GSAA.
GSAA, as a quick reminder, means Goals Saved Above Average. I love using it to compare how goalies are doing compared to their netminding colleagues in a season.
The quick math behind it is you add up everyone’s saves and shots against to get the league-average save percentage. Then you throw that number into a boring formula, and based off the number of saves a goalie has made, it tells us how many more or less shots a goalie did or did not stop. Positive numbers are good; negative numbers are bad.
Best Starting Netminders by GSAA
| Goalie | Min. | GA | SV | GAA | Sv% | GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose, Nick | 240:00 | 34 | 171 | 8.50 | .834 | 11.09 | Jamieson, Doug | 360:55 | 61 | 242 | 10.14 | .799 | 5.64 | Dobson, Brett | 323:48 | 60 | 233 | 11.12 | .795 | 4.44 | Del Bianco, Christian | 240:00 | 44 | 171 | 11.00 | .795 | 3.28 | Vinc, Matt | 300:00 | 56 | 211 | 11.20 | .790 | 2.72 |
Worst Starting Netminders by GSAA
| Goalie | Min. | GA | SV | GAA | Sv% | GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ward, Dillon | 188:41 | 43 | 128 | 13.67 | .749 | -5.39 | Hill, Warren | 302:55 | 56 | 175 | 11.09 | .758 | -5.20 | Dunkerley, Cam | 235:29 | 49 | 157 | 12.48 | .762 | -3.69 | Kells, Landon | 279:45 | 59 | 194 | 12.65 | .767 | -3.36 | Bold, Aaron | 283:51 | 52 | 170 | 10.99 | .766 | -3.18 |
Photo Credit: Georgia Swarm
Drowning Dobson
I really felt for Brett Dobson last Saturday as he was chased from the red uprights against the Albany FireWolves. He deserved a better fate than what he experienced.
The Swarm are the epitome of trying to win the even strength game. Of their 824 sets combined offense and defense before Saturday’s contest, they spent 67.5% of their time settled. 282 of those shifts were 5-on-5 defense, 11.1% were on the penalty kill, and 10.4% were in transition.
Saturday saw them get away from that game badly, and Dobson suffered the consequences. Handing out plenty of power play shifts to the FireWolves, Dobson was on the floor for 32 ESSets, a respectable amount for the shade over two quarters he played. But those 32 ESSets were 59.3% of the total shifts he witnessed. The Swarm PK was out often in front of him, as that was 25.9% of the shifts he faced.
Of those 14 PPSets for Albany, Dobson was perfect on 13 of them — yes, the NLL didn’t credit John Piatelli’s goal as a power play marker, but I’ve watched the footage way too much and accounted for human error. The door in front of John Ranagan wasn’t moving when Piatelli ripped the rock towards Dobson, scoring exactly as the penalty time expired; it’s a PPG. Dobson had a .929 Sv% on the penalty kill despite that being a quarter of the sets he experienced, an effiency percentage against of just 7.1%.
I’m not trying to suggest Dobson had a good night, because he gave up 10 goals in under 35 minutes. Slice it however you want, but he didn’t turn in his best performance. Six of the goals against him were even strength, and considering he faced 17 ESSOG, that’s a bad save percentage. But considering how much time he spent in high-pressure situations against a damn fine FireWolves offense (albeit a weak power play), maybe we acknowledge the team trotting to the box so often wasn’t doing him many favors.
Photo Credit: Mike Kirschbaum/Las Vegas Desert Dogs
Power Rankings — Week 7
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
The bottom three teams are easy to figure out. The top six are a bit harder, but you can still make a case for them to be where they’re at.
Teams 7-12? Good luck figuring them out.
I figured them out:
15. Vancouver Warriors (1-4)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 7 results: 14-7 loss to the Roughnecks
14. New York Riptide (1-3)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 7 results: 14-12 loss to PCLC
13. Colorado Mammoth (1-4)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 7 results: 12-8 loss to the Seals
12. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (2-3)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 7 results: 10-8 win against the Seals
11. Saskatchewan Rush (1-3)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 7 results: Did not play
10. Panther City LC (2-3)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 7 results: 14-12 win against the Riptide
9. Philadelphia Wings (2-3)
Previous ranking: 8
Week 7 results: Did not play
8. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-3)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 7 results: 11-9 loss to the Rock
7. Calgary Roughnecks (2-2)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 7 results: 14-7 win against the Warriors
6. Rochester Knighthawks (3-2)
Previous ranking: 6
Week 7 results: 15-13 loss to the Bandits
5. San Diego Seals (3-2)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 7 results: 10-8 loss to the Desert Dogs, 12-8 win against the Mammoth
4. Georgia Swarm (4-2)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 7 results: 12-8 loss to the FireWolves
3. Buffalo Bandits (3-2)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 7 results: 15-13 win against the Knighthawks
2. Toronto Rock (4-0)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 7 results: 11-9 win against the Thunderbirds
1. Albany FireWolves (6-0)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 7 results: 12-8 win against the Swarm