Broken Righties, Vinc’s Weakness?
Four teams have righty scoring issues; has Father Time caught up to the NLL’s greatest goalie of all time?
Photo Credit: C. Sherman/Oshawa FireWolves
There’s nothing like having actual NLL games played. I’ve spent six months trapped in my head pretending I’m WOPR in War Games (NLLOPR?), continuously running NLL simulations for the 2025-26 NLL season and trying to learn. Actual games upend that exercise, giving us insights and data to work with. The only winning move is to play, Matthew Broderick.
Even with all this new knowledge, it’s way, way too early to glean anything useful from the data we have. We’re firmly in the land of Small Sample Size (SSS) and will be until week 8 when all teams have at least four games under their belts.
But sportsball is nothing if not overreacting to the first steps of a marathon season, so let’s do that, tongue firmly planted in cheek.
Photo Credit: C. Sherman/Buffalo Bandits
Righties Are Broken
What do the Colorado Mammoth, Georgia Swarm, Toronto Rock, and Vancouver Warriors all have in common from last weekend? Their right-handed forwards couldn’t score regularly enough at even strength.
The first three all had one or two 5-on-5 goals from their righties, with the Warriors not seeing any settled success, an issue that extended across their O zone all night long. Ryan Lee, Dylan McIntosh, Jordan MacIntosh, and Challen Rogers were the only right-handed players to score 5-on-5 for their respective teams
Vancouver was just bad settled. I didn’t have them for a single even strength marker Saturday night; Adam Charalambides’ second goal of the game had six players in the offensive zone, even though one of those six was running towards the bench. Brad Challoner correctly pointed out during the game’s broadcast how technically that goal was 6-on-5, as a penalty was coming the Mammoth’s way. Bureaucrat Challoner, you are technically correct, the best kind of correct.
Is there anything the Mammoth, Swarm, and Rock have in common that contributed to this issue? Two things come to mind.
Love has to be given to the opposing defenses — the Warriors, Bandits, and FireWolves. Vancouver had the best defense last season and did nothing but improve it over the offseason. The Bandits are the Bandits and added Mitch de Snoo in a trade before the season started; holding Lyle Thompson to an apple is remarkable. Doug Jamieson was so tuned in that he saw the past, present, and future all at the same time.
The Mammoth and Swarm do have the same issue where they have a superstar forward in Lee and Thompson and unproven names joining them on that side of the floor. It makes their side easier to defend against – shut down the known quantity, be okay if the unknown stings you two or three times. The lefties carried the load for both teams, with a 23.8 and 28.6 TrueESS% for Colorado (i.e., Will Malcom) and Georgia (i.e., Shayne Jackson), respectively.
Toronto’s pair of 40-goal scorers from last season in Chris Boushy and Josh Dawick didn’t have the best start to their 2025-26 campaigns, but they played in a defensive masterclass, and their offense was more balanced in the low-scoring affair.
Like I said in the intro, this section is facetious. Kaleb Benedict hade a pair of goals for the Swarm, a PPG and FBG. Colorado having two righty settled goals is something you can live with when Malcom has a sock trick. It’s just one game, and I can’t imagine holding Boushy, Dawick, and Rogers to just an even strength per game for an entire season. Curtis Dickson had a pair of goals (PP and SH), and Keegan Bal contributed a shorthanded markeer.
But Colorado and Georgia have more unknown quantities in the mix this season on the right side, especially the Swarm. Until those unknowns become known, we might see similar performances.
Photo Credit: Buffalo Bandits
Vinc’s Weakness?
Has Father Time finally, finally caught up with Matt Vinc?
He finished the game with a .750 Sv%, below the league-average save percentage of .792, and a -1.83 GSAA means he gave up almost two goals more than a league-average netminder in this young season. Considering the Bandits defense allowed just 44 SOG, the second lowest shots on goal total allowed by a defense last weekend, it’s fair to say Vinc’s performance wasn’t exactly matching the defense in front of him.
The more concerning stat is his GSAA for TrueES against lefties, as it’s -3.20, the worst in the NLL. Left-handed forwards were particularly effective against the 43-year-old on banner-raising night. Is this a sign of his wheels finally wobbling after thousands of miles?
Of course not; it’s just one game. As mentioned earlier, Jackson had a hot stick for the Swarm, tagging the oldest player in the NLL with four goals. They were atypical, most of them coming from further out than expected from Jackson, and that unorthodox shot selection for the 2020 NLL MVP certainly played a part in his success.
Vinc had a 0.46 GSAA in 2023-24 and 3.79 GSAA in 2024-25. He’s been a bit better than average the last two regular seasons. Postseason Matt Vinc is a different animal, posting a 4.45 and 12.69 GSAA in the 2024 and 2025 NLL postseasons, respectively.
No. 48 doesn’t need to be a world-beater anymore like he’s been throughout most of his career. Steadfast at the helm of the Bandits ship, Vinc cruises the stormy seas of an 18-game regular season, letting the Bandits cannonade of Dhane Smith and Josh Byrne terrorize the NLL. His navigation skills shine when it matters most – playoffs.
Want proof that plan works? Look at the rafters in KeyBank Center.
Notorious History
As I mentioned earlier, the Warriors failed to score an even strength goal on Saturday. We can quibble on the technicalities of Charalambides’ second goal of the game, but I counted six forwards in the O zone and have to consider it EA whether that sixth was facing the goal or not.
That lack of settled success put the Warriors in rarified air. They’re now the fourth team in the past three seasons to not score an ESG in a game, joining the Saskatchewan Rush, Las Vegas Desert Dogs, and Albany FireWolves. The FireWolves are the only three-time member of this notorious club. I’m sure they’re hopeful their annual tradition of no ESG success goes away with their new home, as I’m sure the Warriors hope to never have a similar showing anytime soon.