We’re Working Our Bags Off
The busiest NLL goalies early on in the season and what the stats tell us
Photo Credit: Trevor MacMillan/Halifax Thunderbirds
I’m going to level with you real quick, dear reader.
Trying to craft any conclusive arguments about teams in the first month of an NLL season sucks. We’ve seen 13.5% of an entire season. Only five teams have played more than two games, and only one of those five is out of the realm of small sample size (and they’re really bad). All it leaves us with are questions lacking enough data to completely support our arguments.
Do the Desert Dogs need Jack Hannah back in the lineup, or can they get that first-half offense from last weekend to be a consistent threat? Are the Wings better than we thought they were preseason? Warren Hill has to come down to earth, right? Despite all the offseason changes, is it the same ol’ Riptide Black Bears?
The only answer we know for sure this early 2025-26 NLL regular season is the FireWolves offense is putrid.
It’s a frustrating time to be in that will only be rectified with more games played. So while we wait for more, let’s play a quick game of our own.
Below are the five busiest goalies in the NLL pre-Christmas, ranked by shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60). It’s an open-book text, so you can go look for the answers ahead of time, but try and guess the starting netminder based on the stats below before you look up the answers or skip down to see who’s who:
Goalie A
116:45 min. | 8.74 GAA | .851 Sv% | 4.45 GSAA | 58.59 SA/60
Goalie B
116:45 min. | 11.31 GAA | .800 Sv% | -1.21 GSAA | 56.53 SA/60
Goalie C
100:22 min. | 14.95 GAA | .728 Sv% | -7.62 GSAA | 55.00 SA/60
Goalie D
174:57 min. | 8.23 GAA | .843 Sv% | 4.91 GSAA | 52.47 SA/60
Goalie E
120:26 min. | 4.98 GAA | .905 Sv% | 9.84 GSAA | 52.31 SA/60
Photo Credit: Kyle Hess/Georgia Swarm
Pencils down. Here are the answers:
Goalie A — Rylan Hartley
Goalie B — Nick Damude
Goalie C — Chris Origlieri
Goalie D — Brett Dobson
Goalie E — Warren Hill
What can we infer from these numbers? Let’s go goalie by goalie.
I’m happy Hartley and Damude dropped the fits and mitts last weekend to brawl (fighting isn’t cool, kids (yes, it is, don’t let adults lie to you)), as it keeps their minutes played through two games even, giving us an interesting comparison. They’re atop the leaderboards in knuckles connecting with opposing goalies’ faces and most shots faced per 60 minutes.
A healthy Hartley is active as hell, with the lion’s share of the shots he faced coming from the Seals. At 27 years young, we’re seeing one of the best young tendies do what we all know he can do when we’re not worried about his noggin being rattled. His SA/60 being so high speaks more to the defense in front of him being porous and older. They played better in front of him last season, allowing 48.92 SA/60 when he was in net (but 53.81 SA/60 when Riley Hutchcraft played), so expect those numbers to taper down a bit as the season goes on. It is evidence that the one weakness this team has on paper might be cause for concern. Jake Piseno scoring a hat trick, as entertaining as that is, won’t exactly cover that up.
This isn’t new air for Damude. He was the busiest goalie last season (59.65 SA/60) because the defense in front of him was bad; it was a barrage of bullets every time he played, and his strong abilities between the pipes were the only reason the team didn’t have the worst defensive numbers in the NLL (still next to last). The team is down a (Mitch) de Snoo and waiting on the recovery of Scott Dominey, but it didn’t get better over the offseason, just younger. Damude’s as busy as ever because of it and seeing success early on despite it. The 27-year-old dragged his team across the finish line in their home opener and allowed just 15 against the Rochester Knighthawks, which, given the way this KHawks offense looks right now (like they’re going to break some single-season records), is pretty damn good.
Circling back to the minutes being the same for Damude and Hartley — it’s weird to think the Knighthawks and Wings defenses are similar, but early on, they kind of are in the grand scheme of things. Rochester is better even strength, Philly has been surprisingly strong on the PK, Hartley stops the run game better, and neither have allowed a shorthanded goal against. The biggest difference between the two defenses is only one has had to face this Knighthawks offense.
Photo Credit: Philadelphia Wings
If there’s any player in this quintet to be concerned about, it would be Origlieri. I was anxious preseason that the defense had lost too much ability and experience to replicate their incredible shot suppression numbers from last season. You don’t lose Kyle Rubisch in free agency and Cam Holding and Jesse Gamble to retirement and expect that to not have a negative impact. The numbers early on do nothing to assuage those fears. Origlieri is busy, and the 23-year-old’s slow start coming off his worst statistical season means this might be his floor, one he’s currently sprawled upon. Goalies take longer to develop, and that development isn’t a line that moves up year to year. Origlieri’s trajectory certainly nosedived over the last year, but he’s the youngest netminder playing right now. This’ll end up being a valley in his career.
Dobson is making me eat some crow. I came into the season thinking he was an average netminder at best that wasn’t going to match the hype or his field accolades. Early on, he’s making that analysis look downright foolish. Swarm head coach Ed Comeau told Rush sideline reporter Heather Morrison ahead of the Swarm and Rush game last weekend that the team’s defensive system changed, going from letting teams get off perimeter shots for Dobson to gobble up (which he wasn’t doing last season) to aggressively pressuring, staying on hands and using the young legs and athleticism to make up for any mistakes. It’s a system that seems to work much, much better for the 25-year-old, with promising early results.
Finally, the King of the Hill. Warren’s never played this well in his career, and this is the busiest he’s been in some time. He’s had stretches of brilliance, but making history one weekend then upsetting the championship-favorite Bandits by holding them to just 8 goals the next weekend? Unprecedented for Warren. It’s been a world class start for the elder statesman of this quintet, which has the Thunderbirds sitting atop a few different Power Rankings around the NLL (including mine). The team’s usually much better at shot suppression, and given their roster turnover has been minimal over the years (adding the underrated Ethan O’Connor to the mix), I’d imagine the SA/60 will reflect that down the line.
The common refrain from this article is it’s early in the season. I expect some of these numbers to settle down, come back to earth, regress to the mean, all that jazz. But I do think we can raise some concerned eyebrows at two teams, be elated at the performances of two goalies, and be comfortable with the fact that this is just more of the same for Philly.
Photo Credit: San Diego Seals