Not So Fast, MVP; A Quiet Turnaround
Questioning whether Brett Dobson is still the frontrunner for MVP this season, and examining the Roughnecks’ recent run of success
Photo Credit: Kyle Hess/Georgia Swarm
Not So Fast, MVP
We shouldn’t crown NLL MVPs in February. It blows up in our faces more often than not, prognostications obfuscated by recency bias. But when a goalie’s playing as well as Brett Dobson is, you have to start banging the attention drum a little early to get that traction building.
The 25-year-old has been historically dominant through 14 games, with a 7.93 GAA and .847 Sv% in 783:37 min. of action. The young defense in front of him have taken to the new defensive system the Swarm went with this season like bees to pollen, but when they make mistakes, Dobson’s more than made up for the lapses, saving the bacon of a burnt defender time and time again.
But there’s no denying it hasn’t been easy sledding of late. The Vancouver Warriors became the first team all season to chase Dobson from the net (bad reffing incorrectly putting him in the penalty box and taking a break in a game that’s clearly in hand so Devlin Shanahan can get some reps don’t count) and the second to tag him with double digits in goals. Halifax managed to hit double digits against him last weekend, but it took an historic effort to achieve, chasing Shanahan in an abbreviated appearance where he made four saves on 10 SOG.
There had to be some regression, a step back. It’s unrealistic to expect a goalie to be a bulwark for an entire season, even though it looked like nothing was slowing Dobson’s reign of terror down before Vancouver.
Prior to the loss to the Warriors, Dobson had a GSAA of 40.15, which is the highest I’ve ever seen a GSAA in a season (going back to 2005) and was almost triple the next closest netminder in 2025-26, Christian Del Bianco at 14.64. It had to drop precipitously after the last two games, right? Maybe we were too early on the MVP talk?
Nah, son. He’s still brilliant. His GSAA did take a step back, but it’s 37.82, which is still the highest single-season total for a goalie since 2005, again, by a significant margin. Vancouver has a deadly offense that happily takes advantage of a bad defensive showing; no goalie was going to be good behind that Swarm defense in week 16. And even though Halifax reached 10 goals against him, he still made 47 saves.
“There had to be some regression, a step back.” Man, it’s barely a quarter-step. Losses tend to cast a pall over recent memory, but that shouldn’t be the case here. Dobson’s still the clear front-runner for this award, barring an epic collapse in his last four games.
Enjoy what’s left of his regular season; it’s special as hell.
Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing/Colorado Mammoth
A Quiet Turnaround
Only one team is eliminated from postseason contention at this point in the 2025-26 NLL regular season, the 3-11 Philadelphia Wings. With just four weeks left until playoffs, other teams will join them sooner than later. If you’re paying attention, it’s likely to be the Oshawa FireWolves and Calgary Roughnecks, as they’re both 4-10.
It’s been a rough season for both teams, but I think it’s fair that Calgary’s trials and tribulations were more expected than Oshawa’s, who I naively had finishing third in the standings at the end of the season. Whoopsies. Their past two seasons are something I want to write about in the future, dissecting a few dozen things; recently beating up on the Wings twice doesn’t mean the ship’s righted in my eyes.
Calgary I feel differently about. Again, no one outside of that locker room expected them to be a playoff team, but we did expect them to make things difficult for opponents, and for the most part, they’ve done that. They’re 3-3 in their last six games (1-7 before that), 2-1 in their last three, and made the Mammoth sweat last weekend.
What we’ve seen from them in the last three weekends is a clear indication of what this team can be in the very near future and worth reviewing their slash lines since playing the Rochester Knighthawks on March 8:
| Shift Type | Goals | S% | SOG% | E% | LP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TrueES for | 23 | 13.8% | 73.7% | 12.4% | 14.1% |
| TrueES against | 16 | 11.1% | 80.6% | 9.9% | 19.8% |
| TruePP for | 4 | 14.8% | 70.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| TruePP against | 7 | 41.2% | 76.5% | 41.2% | 17.6% |
| TrueFB for | 6 | 37.5% | 75.0% | 33.0% | 20.0% |
| TrueFB against | 3 | 13.0% | 65.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
In the previous 11 games, the Roughnecks had negative differentials in TrueES, PP, and FB stats, notably significant settled, as they were outscored by 20 goals in that shift type.
But the last three games have seen an emphasis on 5-on-5 success and better shot selection in transition. Against the Knighthawks and Black Bears, the Roughnecks really dominated the even strength facet of the games, outscoring both opponents by 5 ESG in their respective matchups. Their TrueES offensive production is up a bit compared to their slash line in the previous 11 games (13.1/70.7/11.0), but their defense has really battened down the hatches compared to that same time frame (15.1/69.4/14.2). Aden Walsh is a damn fine goalie, and the defense has played much, much better in front of him this March.
When things weren’t going their way settled like was the case against the Mammoth, the Roughnecks took advantage of opportunities afforded to them (2 PPG, 3 FBG, 1 EAG, and 1 PSG), showing they could hang when things weren’t exactly going to plan.
If we treat those first 8 games of the season as growing pains for Calgary, then we should be elated with their recent six-game stretch, particularly their play in March. The playoffs might be out of reach for this season, and there will be changes in the offseason, but the young core this team built has started to demonstrate what Roughnecks lacrosse can be. It’s worth being excited about if you’re a fan and wary of if you’re an opponent.