How the Rush Evened the NLL Final Series

The Rush diversified the game plan to emerge victorious last Sunday

*Photo Credit: Stephen Hiscock/Saskatchewan Rush*

Make no mistake: We are absolutely getting the three-game NLL Finals we deserve. This bareknuckle brawl between the two best teams with the best regular season records has been one of the most exceptional NLL series I’ve ever seen. The Buffalo Bandits and Saskatchewan Rush launch haymakers with abandon, but instead of huge knockout blows, they’re whittling away at one another, scrapping slivers off one another for that one extra goal and one stop more than their foe.

We got Game 3 this Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center. What more can you ask for?

It didn’t have to be this way. The other 13 NLL teams could’ve laid down for the team of destiny, the dynasty-in-the-making that is the Buffalo Bandits. Four consecutive Buffalo postseason wins had them primed to accomplish the historic three-peat, becoming the second team in NLL history to achieve this feat.

But at what could have been the finish line, the Rush turned in a spectacular performance to extend the season one more weekend. And they did it by not playing the game the Bandits wanted to play.

In the four games preceding Game 2 of the 2025 NLL Finals, the Bandits were playing exactly the game they wanted (with the exception of the first game of the Semi-Finals, when they didn’t really need to). Buffalo focused on keeping the even strength game close and finally figuring out how to score at a reliable rate on the power play.

Game 1 of the Semi-Finals against the Warriors was an aberration, as the Warriors offense couldn’t hit settled waters if they fell out of a boat in that game — they registered 21 SOG while 5-on-5 and failed to solve Matt Vinc once in that facet of the game.

In the other three contests, the Bandits have been “fine” playing tighter even strength games, keeping things within one score either in their favor or their foes’ (I’m sure Buffalo would prefer settled blowouts, but this is the NLL Playoffs, not a relaxing salon ready to spend an hour getting that hair looking luxurious and bouncy). This focus means the Bandits forced their opponents to meet them in the middle of the ring to primarily slug things out 5-on-5. The Bandits spent 74.6% of their combined O & D shifts settled in their postseason wins, which is healthily above their regular season 63.2%.

Buffalo also figured out how to be successful on the power play (ignoring their win against the Seals, since scoring at all in that contest was the equivalent of panning for gold). It’s an area that dogged them all regular season long; their 17.2 TruePPE% was the fourth worst during the season. In the four aforementioned postseason contests, the Bandits haven’t had that issue, scoring on nearly one in four power play shifts (23.3 TruePPE%). If they had that success during the regular season, the Bandits would have had the best man-advantage in the NLL.

That’s the game plan in a nutshell. There’s obviously more to it — Vinc has been unreal, as has the Bandits penalty kill (85.7% for the postseason), and Ian MacKay has the second hottest stick this postseason — but it’s not really worth digging much more into it than that, Occam’s razor and all. Keep the 5-on-5 game close, beat opponents on special teams.

It’s frighteningly effective.

The Rush fell into the same trap as the Seals and Warriors. In fact, the Rush fell into the same trap as they did against the Bandits on March 1 in KeyBank Center, the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. In that 9-7 loss, the Rush were outscored 7-5 even strength. They scored a power play goal to the Bandits’ zilch, but the Bandits had a similar differential in transition. Buffalo kept their settled offense going, weathered plenty of penalties, and were surer shots on fast breaks.

Last Friday, Saskatchewan got sucked into that exact game rhythm. They outscored the Bandits 10-9 settled, but those 10 even strength markers were all the scoring the Rush did in Game 1 (which is impressive; scoring 10 ESG more often than not wins you an NLL game). But the Rush weren’t efficient on the power play — 0 PPG on 7 PPSets compared to Buffalo’s perfection, 1 PPG on 1 PPSet — and they were almost reserved in transition.

Timidity in transition wasn’t on my bingo card for the Rush, but it should have been. They were middle-of-the-pack in fast break efficiency during the regular season, about average in the number of offense TrueFBSets and average in efficiency, as well. Their transition game was based on taking the smarter shot and not wasting opportunities — their TrueFBLP% of 13.5% was the third lowest in the NLL behind the Knighthawks (13.3%) and Bandits (13.1%). By getting sucked into the 5-on-5 game like the Bandits wanted, the Rush only had 7 transition chances, shooting on five of them, with only three of those shots registering on target. When Saskatchewan played Buffalo during the regular season, it was a similar story, as they only had 6 TrueFBSets, three shots, two on target — Rust Cole time is a flat circle.

Sunday was a complete rejection of that nonsense.

John Gurtler and Steve Bermel had me on the Bandits pregame radio show ahead of Game 2, and I specifically pointed out the Rush had to get back to their normal transition ways, particularly Jake Boudreau. My runner-up for Transition Player of the Year needed to get close to the video game statline he had against the Swarm in the Quarterfinals, not taking ill-advised shots wide late in the fourth. The Rush also needed to quit letting the Bandits dominate special teams. That means beat the soakiest PK anyone’s ever seen and stay out of the penalty box as much as possible.

Both those things happened. Boudreau banged two goals home, bookending the first half with two incredible plays. Then the Rush limited the Bandits’ time on the power play and capitalized on their chances.

The Bandits won the settled game 7-5 and scored an EAG, but the Rush won special teams (2-0), transition (2-1), and unsettled opportunities (2-1). And while the Bandits tried their best to stay 5-on-5 (76.4% of their offensive shifts), the Rush diversified their shift portfolio, spending 69.1% of their shifts settled compared to 77.4% in Game 1 and seeing modest upticks pretty much across the set board.

Refusing to stay in the center of the ring worked for the Rush. If they kept the differential close 5-on-5, then they could spread out a bit more, making better shots in transition and flipping the special teams script on the Bandits. It didn’t hurt cashing in on two insane broken plays — Boudreau’s first-half cap and Shanks’ go-ahead goal midway through the fourth.

The two-time defending champion Buffalo Bandits have been at another level this postseason. They’ve rarely looked like they don’t have their feet on the opponent’s neck, and that’s because they’re so damn talented that they’re forcing others to dance to their tune. I don’t want to take away from how close three of their first four games were, nor act like the Rush’s win last Sunday was a decisive counter that tilted the floor to the second seed’s favor (the Quarterfinals matchup with the Seals was an incredible defensive showing, and Game 2 of the Semi-Finals against the Warriors was entertaining as hell; the Rush threw everything they had at the Bandits and weathered their late push). But Sunday reminded everyone that a Bandits’ three-peat isn’t writ in stone yet, and there is a way to spoil their historic pursuit.

Buffalo is still the favorite to win their third NLL Cup in a row and will adjust to Saskatchewan adjusting to them. But the Rush showed how you best the best when it matters most. You don’t let them dictate the pace. We’ll see if they can replicate that Saturday in Game 3.

Hannibal Smith loves it when a plan comes together. I love it when things fall apart.

Stats2024-25Buffalo BanditsSaskatchewan Rush

Ty Merrow

Game	TrueES Goal Differential	TrueESE%	TruePP Goal Differential	TruePPE%	TrueFB Goal Differential	TrueFBE%
vs. SD	-1	3.4%	-1	0.0%	0	20.0%
vs. VAN	3	5.5%	1	25.0%	2	50.0%
@ VAN	1	16.1%	2	28.6%	0	0.0%
vs. SAS	-1	12.9%	1	100.0	1	25.0

How the Rush Evened the NLL Final Series

The Rush diversified the game plan to emerge victorious last Sunday

NLL 2025 Postseason — Finals

TyMer Lacrosse